Incidencia de la participación de China en Ecuador como estrategia de integración comercial y desarrollo económico.

Abstract

China's economic growth has become the main driving force for the economic development of the world, the evolution of the international financial system in the last ten years has shown that the current type of financial globalization leads to global instability and generates recurrent financial crises, particularly in emerging economies. China has laid eyes on Latin America proof of this is that the Ecuadorian government is betting on a strong Chinese investment to finance works in strategic sectors of the national economy. The prospective analysis with respect to the trade balance showed that for the next two quarters of 2017 a slight increase in imports and a reduction in exports are expected, given that it is expected that the price of oil will continue to fall and that the dollar keeps its tendency of depreciation in world markets it is estimated that in general, purchases abroad from Ecuador will be reduced given the lower capacity. With respect to the prospective analysis of GDP, it is expected to maintain representativeness at 1% of GDP of exports. Onthe other hand, lower volatility of imports is expected, which will weigh between 3% and 4% of GDP. This means that the trade deficit will continue with its downward trend and its stabilization is expected to reach 2.5% of GDP.