Análisis del impacto generado por la guerra comercial entre Estados Unidos y China en las importaciones y exportaciones ecuatorianas.

Abstract

During the 90s, the United States manages to configure itself as the world leader in commerce and in turn as a creditor of hegemony in the direction of human becoming. With control over the final links in the value chain, it seeks to assign the rules to its various partners. Without an important rival, especially when he is the largest importer of goods on the planet. However, due to sustained growth for more than a decade, China becomes the dean of exports. Therefore, the current trade war between the two has been listed as "the greatest commercial war in history", directly confronting the two most important and strong economies of the present century. This situation transcends borders causing powerful repercussions to globalized trade due to the bilateral imposition of numerous protectionist measures. Reason why statistically, through correlations, mathematical reasons and regression techniques, it was sought to determine if Ecuador has also suffered any impact from this international event, specifically in relation to GDP, to foreign trade that develops in general and specifically with both countries (variables considered quarterly from 2010t1 to 2019t3). The results of the analysis indicated that there is indeed an inverse correlation between Ecuadorian exports to China and the US, while for imports from the same countries there is a direct correlation.