Cambios en los precios de commodities y las exportaciones de la economía ecuatoriana : el caso de los productos agrícolas.

Abstract

This study analyzes the relationship between the volatility of key agricultural commodity prices and Ecuador’s exports from 2000 to 2023. Through a methodological approach that includes price analysis, export structure, and econometric models, key trends in the export agricultural sector were identified. The price evolution analysis revealed significant fluctuations in products such as cocoa, coffee, maize, and bananas, influenced by global supply and demand, climatic conditions, and trade policies. These variations highlight the risks associated with dependence on these commodities. In terms of structure, it was observed that bananas and cocoa remain fundamental to Ecuadorian exports, although there is also a growing diversification driven by national policies aimed at improving sector competitiveness. Econometric models indicated that price volatility significantly affects exports, particularly for key products like bananas and cocoa. Additionally, variables such as the real effective exchange rate (REER) also influence export fluctuations. The conclusions suggest the need to strengthen risk management, promote export diversification, and maintain a stable economic policy to mitigate the effects of price volatility in the international market.