Factores que inciden en la probabilidad de compra de los usuarios de los canales de comercio electrónico en la ciudad de Guayaquil, periodo 2024.

Abstract

The general objective of the research is to determine the factors that affect the probability of e-commerce purchases by consumers in Guayaquil for the year 2024. A methodology that combines the use of a binomial probabilistic logit model, as well as cluster analysis, is used to find behavioral patterns among consumers. The target population consists of e-commerce consumers in Guayaquil who were selected through stratified sampling. The findings of the logit model reinforced trust in the security of the payment platforms, as well as the ease of use of the platforms, as significant factors that increase the probability of purchase. In addition, the contribution of other factors such as quality of customer service and speed of delivery were found to have a significant impact on the purchase decision. Demographic characteristics such as age and education level are associated with individuals' willingness to engage in online transactions, indicating that different segments respond differently to marketing efforts. The analysis showed that trust, usability and shopping experience are the key factors to stimulate e-commerce in Guayaquil. For e-commerce to progress in the region, companies need to focus on transaction security and content, which are critical to achieving results in an expanding digital economy.