Implicaciones de la economía sumergida y la evasión fiscal en el crecimiento económico del Ecuador 2007 – 2023.

Abstract

The objective of this study is to establish the magnitude of Ecuador's underground economy and the inherent tax evasion by means of an econometric analysis that allows understanding the incidence of both variables on national economic growth. For this purpose, a MIMIC model was used to determine the value of the underground economy and tax evasion; in addition, a VAR analysis was performed to establish the relationship between these latent variables, resulting that in the short term the underground economy causes tax evasion, in the same way, it is established that the underground economy in the short term generates a decrease in the Ecuadorian economy, while tax evasion will generate economic growth in the medium term. In this way, a series of institutional and social policy proposals have been established to enable a reconfiguration of the trend behavior of the socioeconomic factors that characterize Ecuador today.