Elasticidades y estacionalidad de la demanda turística mensual en las Islas Galápagos (2017–2024) : un enfoque SARIMA-X para el diseño de políticas contra Cíclicas.

Abstract

Through the instrumentation of a SARIMA-X specification applied to 96 monthly observations between 2017 and 2024 , the elasticities and seasonality of air travel demand to the Galapagos Islands are elucidated to inform the design of countercyclical fiscal policies ; an asymmetric response architecture is identified in which tourist arrivals operate as a hyper-reactive superior good to the external economic cycle, recording an income elasticity of 32.70 during the recovery phase that converges toward a structural threshold of 3.54 under stable conditions. The evaluation of exogenous vectors determines that domestic insecurity—operationalized through the registry of robberies against economic units—erodes arrivals with a semi-annual lag and an elasticity of -1.82, while the loss of exchange rate competitiveness against regional competitors such as Chile induces a substitution effect after a ninety-day latency with an elasticity of -3.1. It is corroborated that the systemic disruption of the pandemic was subsumed by the global income channel, invalidating the statistical relevance of isolated intervention variables and ratifying the robustness of macroeconomic fundamentals in explaining variance ; likewise, the calibration of the structural regime allowed for a contraction of the MAPE error to 13.11%, validating the model's predictive aptitude for budgetary planning and technical management of the archipelago’s carrying capacity. Consequently, the peremptory need to institutionalize a Tourism Stabilization Fund (FET) and an Early Warning System (SAT) aimed at decoupling strategic spending from external stochastic volatility is inferred, thereby guaranteeing financial sustainability and the resilience of the insular ecosystem.