Evaluación de la apertura comercial sobre la inversión extranjera directa y las reservas internacionales : un análisis comparativo de Ecuador 1990-2024.

Abstract

The research projected that Chile is consolidating its position as a benchmark for regional integration, where trade liberalization and Foreign Direct Investment operate in a two-way feedback loop. This interconnectedness suggests that the country has reached a level of institutional maturity where foreign trade not only attracts capital, but the presence of this capital expands future export capacity, creating a virtuous cycle of self-sustaining growth that distinguishes it from its peers. In the case of Colombia, projections indicate a potential for attracting investment comparable to that of Chile, given that its Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) shows great sensitivity to liberalization. However, the continued positive autocorrelation in its foreign exchange reserves suggests that it follows a more passive and cautious accumulation approach. This situation implies that, although the country is open to trade, its overall economic policy focuses on building liquidity reserves to manage uncertainty, in contrast to the more agile and reactive approach observed in the Chilean economy. Finally, it is concluded that, for Ecuador and Peru, simply opening up to trade is not enough to attract investment quickly under the short-term criteria studied. The lack of an immediate impact from FDI indicates that these economies may be dealing with structural limitations or an excessive dependence on extractive sectors, which require more time to implement changes. For these countries, the benefits of trade agreements are projected to depend largely on complementary reforms that improve institutional effectiveness and strengthen Legal certainty.