Impacto de las negociaciones comerciales multipartes en la competitividad exportadora del sector bananero ecuatoriano durante el periodo 2017-2024.

Abstract

This research analyzed the impact of the Multipartite Trade Agreement between Ecuador and the European Union, in force since 2017, on the export competitiveness of the Ecuadorian banana sector during the period 2017–2024. The study was grounded in the principles of international trade and competitiveness, as well as in the analysis of non-tariff barriers, particularly sanitary and phytosanitary measures (SPS) and technical barriers to trade (TBT), which influenced the sector’s performance in the European market. For data collection and analysis, a quantitative approach with a non-experimental and longitudinal design was adopted, using quarterly data from 2009–2024. Descriptive analysis, time series analysis, ANOVA, K-Means segmentation, and fixed-effects panel data models by country were applied. The dependent variables were FOB value and export volume, incorporating commercial variables and a dummy variable representing the post-agreement period. The results revealed heterogeneity among the analyzed European markets. No immediate and homogeneous impact of the agreement on FOB value was identified; however, export volume showed dynamic effects associated with trade persistence and the structural conditions of each country. It was concluded that the agreement facilitated access to the European market, although its effect on competitiveness was neither automatic nor uniform.