Análisis de sostenibilidad en la cadena de valor del camarón de exportación ecuatoriano.

Abstract

In order to get an idea of the future health of the shrimp business in Ecuador, an analysis of the annual exports and prices per pound of shrimp was carried out from 1994 to 2020, based on an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA) to forecast the values of the next five years. It was found that exports will decrease and that prices per pound will grow from now on. Perceptions of shortcomings were also expressed regarding the actors within the value chain and the sustainability of the business in the future is questioned, taking into account the influences of external factors such as diseases and political and economic relations with other countries. It is recommended in future studies to also analyze the variations in the diverse costs that mostly producers face in order to make forecasts and present whether or not there is profitability on a small scale, especially for those who want to go into the business.