Análisis de la demanda y efectos retardados en los productos principales en exportaciones (Camarón, café y banano) hacia Europa “Modelo de serie de tiempo ARIMA”.

Abstract

The purpose of this project is to analyze the demand for shrimp, coffee and bananas and their delay effects through the use of the ARIMA time series model. It is extremely important to know the behavior of these variables since they are part of the main non-oil products in exports to Europe, due to the levels of uncertainty that exist today in the world market, it is important to know the estimates in order to establish viable solutions, which will allow better control of production and reduce risks in sales due to product shortages. In the work, primary and secondary information was taken based on the existing data history of the products, the collection of information was taken from the figures of the Central Bank of Ecuador, ANECAFÉ and the National Chamber of Aquaculture, taking as reference a historical data in a period of five years 2016-2021 and for the analysis of the information that will be collected, the quantitative method will be used, which refers to statistical tables and graphs, in addition to the qualitative method in terms of the appreciation of the results obtained. The development contains the important topics for the understanding of the use and application of the ARIMA time series forecasting model, for data processing the Gretl tool was used, which is an open-source software that allows the econometric analysis of time series. Finally, the analysis of results will be presented with the respective conclusions and recommendations for improvements of the limitations that are evident, and thus promote the development of exports of the products analyzed.