La incidencia del acuerdo comercial entre Ecuador y el grupo EFTA para el próximo quinquenio en el sector de exportación de cacao.

Abstract

Ecuador in the framework of commercial relations and exchanges has had an important dynamic, which has contributed significantly to the increase in the country's GDP in recent years. In this paper, an analysis is made of the incidence of the trade agreement between Ecuador and the EFTA group for the next five years in the cocoa export sector, an agreement that entered into force on November 1, 2020. It was proposed as a longitudinal and extensive statistical analysis, under a multiplicative econometric model of chronological series, in order to project cocoa bean exports from Ecuador to the EFTA group, taking the analysis period from 2012 to 2022. The results indicated a very slight trend movement and evident characteristic seasonal movements, fundamentally with strong falls in the first months and in the last months of each year. Although they are expected to be close to their estimated average of $2,787.8 with a slight upward trend, especially in the medium term. Forecasts for 2023, with limits of 95%. A seasonal variation was found that implies greater demand or increases in the months of greatest cocoa production, October and November, and decreases in months of low demand such as April and December. In conclusion, all these results and analysis allowed us to verify that the research hypothesis that: the signing and entry into force of the trade agreement between Ecuador and EFTA, will increase exports in the cocoa sector for the next five-year period 2023-2027, is valid.