La fiabilidad del análisis técnico en la predicción de precio futuro de acciones que cotizan en el mercado NASDAQ.

Abstract

This research evaluates the reliability of four technical indicators: SMA, EMA, RSI and MACD, with the aim of analyzing their effectiveness as predictive tools in technical analysis because predicting the price of a stock has been one of the most complex challenges that have worried researchers and financial analysts in the stock market. For the development of this study, the descriptive methodology was applied with a quantitative, retrospective longitudinal approach and technical indicators as measurement tools that allowed evaluating the efficiency of technical analysis to predict the future price, through an exhaustive analysis in each of the five companies. filtered through the financial ratios in FINVIZ. The moving averages SMA and EMA were determined to be 80-85% effective in identifying primary trends, capturing solid bullish movements, especially in the years 2020 and 2021. The RSI was 70-75% effective in the of overbought and oversold, which complemented the moving averages when the price entered a corrective phase. On the MACD side, it was 70-80% effective in predicting the moment to buy, while 65-75% effective with sell signals. It was concluded that the reliability of technical indicators decreases in high volatility environments or in lateral trends, it is recommended to make purchase or sale decisions with the validation of several indicators at the same time and not only depend on the confirmation of a single technical indicator.