Análisis comparativo de las ventas de vehículos estadounidenses y chinos en el mercado ecuatoriano : factores determinantes.

Abstract

In Ecuador, population growth and market opening have attracted international brands, in particular, Chinese brands have entered at an accelerated pace, benefiting from trade policies that favor exclusively Chinese foreign investment. These conditions have reduced barriers to entry and generated a significant change in market share, affecting the competitive dynamics of the automotive sector. This has led to the gradual exit of American brands and the closure of operations of their dealerships and assembly plants in Ecuador, as is the case of GM Motors. The difference in Ecuador's trade agreements with the United States and China has influenced the competitiveness of brands, creating a challenging environment for companies whose offer is based on American vehicles. In this context, it is crucial to analyze the impact of Chinese presence has had on the market share distribution and the factors that determine the purchasing decision of the Ecuadorian consumer.The study covered vehicles sold in Ecuador between 2020 and 2023, performing a historical analysis of sales volume as well as conducting a survey with a sample of 386 respondents, a confidence level of 95% and a margin of error of 5%. The findings reveal that, since 2010, imports have grown significantly, driven by a greater demand in the most populated provinces, Guayas and Pichincha. There is an upward trend in the number of imported and registered vehicles, accompanied by a decrease in the average price, which has increased accessibility for consumers. Functional and economic criteria have been validated as key factors in the decision to purchase a vehicle, with safety, performance and price being of most importance. Aspects such as design, technology and brand reputation have an intermediate influence, while intangible elements such as delivery times and availability of after-sales service have a lesser impact. Comparing these factors, Chinese vehicles outperform American vehicles in three of the five most important criteria, consolidating their position as market leaders. Finally, forecast sales made using an ARIMA model indicate that sales of Chinese vehicles will continue to grow over the next four years, while demand for American cars will continue to decline, affected by their price sensitivity and preferential tariff policies.