Optimización de las exportaciones del cacao hacia la Unión Europea : propuesta bajo una perspectiva de planificación de demanda.

Abstract

The objective of this research paper is to analyze a segment of the supply chain: the export process of Ecuadorian cocoa to the European Union. A quantitative methodological approach was employed, based on data collection and analysis through research, projections, and interviews. The current state of the cocoa market, both nationally and internationally, was examined, identifying the main logistical, regulatory, and phytosanitary barriers faced by cocoa producers and exporters. Additionally, a statistical model was developed using export data in terms of value (USD) and weight (tons) from January 2014 to October 2024, allowing for a projection up to October 2025. The forecast indicated that the FOB price is expected to rise in the coming years, while the weight in tons is projected to remain stable with a slight downward trend. To complement the study, interviews were conducted with customs experts specializing in financial and logistical areas, gathering insights into the current situation of exporters and their professional opinions on how to enhance the Ecuadorian cocoa export process to the European market. Based on the analysis and findings, optimization strategies were designed to improve logistical efficiency and reduce trade barriers. The results suggest leveraging the exponential growth of cocoa prices and stable demand by adopting high-end certifications that highlight the origin and fine aroma quality of Ecuadorian cocoa.