Análisis de indicadores de morosidad y rentabilidad en Bancos Privados del Ecuador en el periodo 2018-2024.

Abstract

This study analyzes the relationship between non-performing loans (NPLs) and the profitability of 23 private banks in Ecuador during the period 2018–2024. Using a quantitative, correlational, and non-experimental approach, secondary data were obtained from the Superintendence of Banks and the ASOBANCA. The descriptive analysis showed high dispersion in NPL and profitability indicators, with significant differences among large, medium, and small banks. Normality tests revealed nonnormal distributions, which led to the use of non-parametric methods, such as Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient. The large bank segment, considered individually, met the normality assumption, which made it possible to apply multivariate regressions to assess the impact of the independent variable on the dependent variables. The correlation results show a negative and significant relationship between NPLs and ROA (-0.469) and a weak relationship with ROE (- 0.325), confirming that an increase in non-performing loans reduces the ability to generate profits. The multivariate regression explained 32.7% of the combined variance of ROA and ROE in large banks, with a significant effect of NPLs. The Altman Z2-Score model indicated that no large bank reached the 2.60 threshold that signals the absence of insolvency risk, remaining in the gray or risk zone, while only a few medium and small banks exceeded this threshold. It is concluded that efficient credit risk management is essential to maintaining the profitability and stability of Ecuador’s private banking sector.