Efecto de las remesas en la sostenibilidad del dólar en Ecuador, periodo 2003-2024.

Abstract

This study analyzes the relationship between remittance flows and the sustainability of the dollar in Ecuador during 2003–2024, approximated using a proxy for international reserves. A quarterly database was constructed using official sources, and the variables were transformed to a logarithmic scale to interpret relative changes. The empirical strategy followed a standard sequence in time series: stationarity was evaluated at levels and in first differences with the augmented Dickey-Fuller test, cointegration was tested with Johansen, and, with evidence of a long-term relationship, a VECM model with three lags was estimated. The model fit was consistent with the diagnostics: no relevant residual autocorrelation (Portmanteau p=0.3604) or ARCH heteroscedasticity (p=0.5804) was detected. The results suggest a long-term link between remittances and reserves: the error correction term is negative and statistically significant (−0.307; p=0.000131), indicating convergence toward equilibrium when misalignments exist. In the short term, the effect is not immediate; it appears with a lag, as the variation in remittances from two quarters ago has a significant impact (−0.103; p=0.0142). The impulse-response responses show positive effects that materialize from the fifth quarter onwards, and the variance decomposition indicates that, in quarter 12, about 27.9% of the variation in the proxy is associated with remittance shocks.