Determinantes de la migración interna rural-urbana y su impacto en la calidad laboral de los graduados universitarios en las Facultades de Economía y Empresa de la provincia del Guayas, 2025.

Abstract

The present study analyzes the economic, social, and family determinants of internal rural-urban migration among university graduates in Ecuador and its relationship with job fit. It is based on university graduates from the Faculties of Economics and Business in the province of Guayas during the year 2025, within the existing context of concentration of opportunities and territorial inequality in the cities of Guayaquil, Daule, and Samborondon. A framework is proposed focusing on push-pull factors, human capital, and labor market segmentation, and it is compared with a structured questionnaire that measures expected income, employment, quality of life, networks, and services. The estimation is carried out using partial least squares structural equations (PLS-SEM), analyzing reliability and validity. In this way, direct and indirect effects on the migration decision and job fit are quantified. The final model explains 68.4% of internal migration; the economic factor is the main determinant (β=0.633; p<0.001) and the family factor is also significant (β=0.355; p<0.001), while the social factor did not show sufficient stability and was excluded from the final model.