Perspectivas de la sostenibilidad fiscal en Ecuador : de la bonanza a la reestructuración (2012–2025).

Abstract

This study analyzes fiscal sustainability in Ecuador during the period 2012-2025 with the aim of verifying its existence, describing it, and identifying the impact of transitory components of the economy and public spending. Based on the theory of Bohn and Quintos, two ARDL-ECM models are specified to verify the existence of cointegration between the primary balance, public debt, and transitory components, as well as the long-term relationship between public revenues and expenditures. Furthermore, the model allows for separating short- and long-term relationships and explaining the speed at which variables adjust to return to their respective equilibrium. The results show that cointegration exists between the primary balance, public debt, and transitory components, but not between public revenues and expenditures. Under both criteria, the country's fiscal sustainability exists, although it is weak. The analysis of control variables and the ECM was continued for the first model because it exhibited cointegration. In both the short and long term, the primary balance responds negatively and significantly to increases in transitory spending, confirming the existence of a ratchet effect. On the other hand, the economic cycle variable has a positive and significant impact on the primary balance; the equilibrium depends on the favorable outcome of external shocks. Finally, the model's adjustment speed is high, consistent with the reality of dollarization.