Utilidad del BISAP aumentado con hematocrito inicial en la predicción de pancreatitis aguda no leve y del ingreso a UCI en el Hospital General de Milagro, periodo enero 2025– febrero 2026.

Abstract

Introduction: Acute pancreatitis is a condition with a high hospital burden and variable clinical course, leading to increased healthcare costs when it progresses to severe forms requiring intensive care unit (ICU) management. Methodology: An observational, cross-sectional, retrospective, and analytical study was conducted using data collected from medical records. The sample included 52 patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis treated at the General Hospital of Milagro between January 2025 and February 2026. Results: A total of 34.6% of patients presented non-mild acute pancreatitis, and 19.2% required ICU admission. High BISAP score and SIRS were significantly associated with non-mild pancreatitis (p < 0.001). Both high BISAP and increased BISAP were associated with ICU admission (p < 0.001 and p = 0.003, respectively). The increased BISAP showed a sensitivity of 50.0%, specificity of 97.1%, and an AUC of 0.85, outperforming high BISAP (AUC = 0.735) and SIRS (AUC = 0.600). Conclusion: High BISAP and SIRS are associated with non-mild pancreatitis, while both conventional and increased BISAP predict ICU admission, with the conventional BISAP showing superior performance. Increased BISAP demonstrates high specificity and positive predictive value, making it useful for confirming high-risk patients. Hematocrit and BUN values alone were not significantly associated with increased disease severity.