Dualidad estructural y ciclos políticos: la desconexión fiscal en el financiamiento de la transición energética ecuatoriana 2008-2025.

Abstract

This research analyzes how structural duality and political cycles relate to the fiscal dynamics that financed Ecuador’s energy transition during the 2008–2025 period. The study arises from a contradiction within the Ecuadorian economy: while the country seeks to reduce its dependence on hydrocarbons, a significant share of public energy investment remains linked to oil revenues. To examine this issue, the study used a quantitative approach and quarterly data, together with a sequential econometric strategy that culminated in the estimation of a Markov Switching Dynamic Regression (MS-DR) model. The results identified two distinct regimes. During the Boom Regime, oil revenues and gross domestic product (GDP) growth show a positive and statistically significant relationship with energy investment. In contrast, the Crisis Regime exhibits greater investment volatility and a negative relationship with tax revenues. Both regimes have an estimated duration of approximately four years, like Ecuadorian presidential terms, although this temporal coincidence does not demonstrate a causal relationship. The findings reveal a fiscal disconnection between sustainability objectives and the sources used to finance them. Consequently, there is a need to diversify financing sources and strengthen fiscal mechanisms that can sustain energy investment in the face of economic and political changes.