Incidencia de las exportaciones tradicionales y no tradicionales en el crecimiento económico de Ecuador (2000-2025).

Abstract

This research examines the incidence of traditional and non-traditional exports on Ecuador’s economic growth over the 2000–2025 period. The objective of the study is to determine how these export categories influence the country’s economic growth. Accordingly, the theoretical review addressed the foundations of international trade, as well as the way logistics performance is influenced by improvements in logistics infrastructure, logistics costs, and external shocks. Methodologically, the study employed a quantitative, non-experimental, longitudinal time-series design with descriptive and correlational components, using 26 annual observations for the estimation of the econometric models. The analysis began with descriptive statistics of the variables and a correlation matrix, followed by tests for multicollinearity, stationarity, cointegration, and Granger causality. In addition, Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression models and dynamic Vector Autoregression (VAR) models were estimated. Finally, these tools were applied to test the research hypothesis and assess the significant incidence of traditional and non-traditional exports on Ecuador’s economic growth. The empirical results, however, did not provide sufficient evidence to support a statistically significant incidence of these export categories on economic growth.