Efectos macroeconómicos de la aplicación del Impuesto a la Salida de Divisas en el sector comercial del Ecuador, durante el periodo 2008 – 2014.

Abstract

In 2008, the Foreign Exchange Tax entered into force in the Ecuadorian economy wich caused uncertainty among entrepreneurs of different sectors of the economy, arguing that its implementation would bring negative effects, particularly in the fi nancial and commercia l sector, as they make transactions abroad. This scenario motivated the development of this research which aims to analyze the macroeconomic effects of the implementation of the Foreign Exchange Tax, the commercia l sector was selected as the focus of analysis, since it is the second most important sector within the economy of Ecuador as it makes payments abroa d for its imports. The focus of this research is quantitative with a retrospective cut and, a descriptive and causality approach, estimated through an ANCOVA model under the method of differences in differences, what allows to analyze the economic variables before and after the tax implementation. To develop the model, the frequency of the data was leveled using the Denton method; dummy variables were included in the IPC and Imports variables to adjust for the jump generated by the change to dollarization. Later, the statistical model was estimated, obtaining as a result, that the Foreign Exchange Tax slightly affected the growth of the commercial sector. The economic variables showed an annual reduction on GDP of 0.013%, Employment of 0.118%, FDI of 1.350% and CPI of 18.53 %, while imports and tax collections showed growth of 16.720% and 1.837% respectively.