Validación de la hipótesis de crecimiento económico impulsado por el turismo : caso Ecuador, periodo 2006 – 2018.

Abstract

The present research work aims to introduce the tourism activity as a viable solution to achieve economic growth in Ecuador, developed under a descriptive and correlational conceptualization. Through the collection of relevant and understanding touristic information, it is set up to use statistical models and methods, outlined for the Ecuadorian case. The analysis is developed based on the new theory of international trade along with the 4 variations of the so called “Tourism Led Growth Hypothesis”, defining direction, magnitude and weight of the tourism activity in Ecuador. The validation process here presented is in accordance with Dr. Sharma ‘s procedure for the Indian case, using techniques such as the study of the stationary of the variables, cointegration model and ultimately Granger causality test. A part of the study is assigned to the verification of the causality between tourist arrivals and the oil price, due to the importance of the commodity in ecuadorian revenues. The main conclusion of this publication is that Tourist Arrivals causes a short-term effect in the ecuadorian economic performance, although Touristic Revenues does not. Nevertheless, based on the Granger causality test results, Touristic Revenues can be pointed as a long-term relationship variable. The results suggest that the economic development chain should be composed not only by economic growth, but also by improvement in social, cultural and environmental indicators.