Análisis del ciclo económico de Ecuador y su relación con el comportamiento de la Unión Europea. Periodo 2000-2023.

Abstract

In this research, the synchronization of the economic cycle between Ecuador and the European Union was deepened. The Hodrick-Prescott filter was used, as well as the percentage growth of GDP from 2000 to 2023 with quarterly data to observe the synchronicity of both countries. In addition, cross-correlations were applied with cuts in periods and segmented by country. Finally, Autoregressive Vectors were used to evaluate causal relationships. The results revealed that Ecuador's business cycle would produce the changes in GDP before the European Union. However, no high synchronicity was found in both countries.